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|23 jan 2020|
Мichael Delyagin: Next Year We Will Be Completely in WTO
Source: "World of News"
- If quick introduction of Russia into the World Trade Organization is real? When can it really happen in your opinion?
- I think now it is real: from the part of Obama it will be payment for Medvedev's public refusal to execute obligations of Russia on deliveries of S-300 to Iran. Resolution of Security Council of the United Nations which Decree refers to, strictly speaking, doesn't demand something of the kind - it was the reason to decree.
Now only the European Union is a real problem but if the USA put press it, already to elections in the State Duma next year we will be completely in the WTO. It's real to enter it by May.
- If WTO is so necessary to our country? Why the Russian Federation is so eager to enter this organization?
- WTO is necessary in two cases, each of which has no relation to Russia. The first - if the country exports a lot of civil hi-tech products, the second - if its non-technological export is being restrained in of the fact that the country hasn't joined WTO. It is necessary to recollect that restrictions on deliveries of steel pipes in the USA - favourite example of the Russian lobbyists of WTO - were mentioned in due time by 20 countries from which 19, that is all except Russia, were members of WTO.
Moreover: restriction of the Chinese import being discussed now in the USA, as a matter of fact, will destroy the basic idea of this organization - so our reformers fighting now for accession to WTO fight no more than for getting a ticket on "Titanic".
In 2000 WTO became fixed idea of liberals because they had to achieve any results which didn't lead to immediate social disaster at that allowing to underline once again their fidelity to the West. It is purely political motivation which has no connection to interests of the country.
- What will WTO give to the country and the main thing - to its citizens?
- Accession to WTO deprives the country of possibility to strengthen general level of market protection. We would have to resort to it not only because restoration of economy and modernization objectively demand such protection always and everywhere but also owing to full disclosure of our economy now. The country is open - while in such condition it, as well as a house, can't stay safe for long. Especially in conditions of global depression when struggle for commodity markets becomes many times tougher.
So it will find out already soon that preservation at least a part of manufactures, not speaking about their development, demands market protection. WTO won't allow to protect it in civilized way - by means of tariffs and, as economy is alive organism with self-preservation instinct, market protection will be carried out with usage of uncivilized means - corruption and alternating devaluations.
This is the main thing that accession to WTO will give to the Russian citizens.
- Whether it's good for us that, for example, state support to village is reduced? Considering our conditions? What restrictions, pros and contras appear in this connection for home producers and consumers?
- Certainly, present support of village is extremely inefficient: it's enough to look at realities of this year. Though if the country supports village inefficiently, it keeps possibility to raise efficiency of the support. Its reduction more than twice, as a matter of fact, deprives Russia of possibility to feed itself. Naturally, it is favourable to foreign manufacturers of foodstuff and the Russian officials lobbying their interests.
- What is more present in aspiration to access to WTO - policy or economy? We failed to access to this organization at president Putin. Whether we will ado it at president Medvedev? Also what will Dmitry Medvedev achieve in the opinion of the West and Russia from accession to WTO?
- In due time Minister of economic development and trade Gref failed result purely economic, not ideological basis of his violent desire to access to WTO.
There's no economic sense in it today - to have it Russia should at first carry out successful modernization (as it was done by China in due time) but I am not sure that WTO will live to its end.
In the opinion of the West supporters of accession of Russia to WTO are "good guys". However, our liberal fundamentalists made all concessions to the West which the last could count seriously on already approximately to the beginning of 2005, after that accession of Russia to WTO became excessive for the developed countries. They received everything they wanted and joining would mean that Russia as a member of WTO would get rights, though little ones. They didn't need it - and they blocked accession of Russia to WTO by putting forward mad and often having not connection to WTO requirements. But now service rendered by Medvedev to Obama at the expense of Iran demands payment - and Russia can be let up to WTO as a mouse into a mousetrap.
For liberal fundamentalists it will be a sign of outstanding success of the Russian president. The West will accept him as "inside man" - as the one who can cut down what he need.
However politician who finishes process of its accession to WTO already in few years will be perceived by Russia as the traitor of national interests, as new Gorbachev's reincarnation. I wouldn't wish such destiny either to the previous, or the present president.
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