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|4 aug 2020|
Future of Belarus: Ruin or Technologic Breakthrough
Delyagin Michael 18.04.2011
The question of future development of the country is especial sharp after tragic for public consciousness of Belarus disorders on December, 19th.
On the one hand, Gorbachev's in their essence hopes for gradual democratization which will solve all social and economic (as well as political) problems onу more time proved to be groundless. Democracy - is not the tool of transformation and not precondition of economic success, it's only result of development: it grows from them in the forms peculiar to this or that culture.
On the other hand, reaction of the European Union to suppression of disorders cast variety of people who spent years on normalization of relations and civilized integration of Belarus with Europe into confusion.
European vector of its orientation "sagged" - it happened against sagging of the Russian vector! After all Russian ruling bureaucracy is occupied first of all with solving of the "problem-2012" and "development of resources".
Natural strategy of Belarus - maintenance of balance between Russia and the European Union with reception of benefits from both strategic partners. Though it is difficult to provide balance with one partner and impossible - in strategic emptiness.
It's temporal and eternal partners will return, having got rid of their internal problems - but it will come true after long while.
It's very difficult in conditions of a global economic crisis.
Degree of efficiency of Belarusian economy can be discussed infinitely, at that the result will change cardinally depending on the selected for comparison base. One thing is undoubted: incomparably smaller in comparison with Russia economic resources are used incomparably more effectively. It concerns both social and industrial questions - it is enough to specify higher, than in Russia productivity of wheat (in the absence of Krasnodar territory, Stavropol and other granaries) and summer forest fires which have been stopped on the border.
Possibly, Belarusian mechanical engineering and agrarian and industrial complex are less effective, than, for example, German or Chinese ones. But they shouldn't exist at all in the severest global competition: realization of standard liberal recipes would deindustrialize Belarus long time ago with its population hardly less than 10 million people, located near to the European centers of mechanical engineering and subsidized agriculture of the European Union!
Global economic crisis qualitatively toughens development conditions, at that mechanical engineering suffers most of all - the branch due to which safety and development Belarus managed to provide not only stability but also confident forward development. Just recently trump card of the Belarusian economy turns to its Achilles' heel.
Inertial development of situation in Belarus is caused by combination of objective economic difficulties and conscious policy of global ruling class which as the events in the North Africa show followed a way of chaotization of mankind as the simplest way of escalating of riches and influence. Rigid relation of the European bureaucracy to Belarus testifies orientation of the West to its transformation into supervised by liberals and subsequently incapacitated territory - in some kind of Northern Moldova.
Scenario is more or less clear: objective deterioration of social and economic situation will at first create and then strengthen discontent. Vigorous financing of liberal opposition (the more it is insignificant, the better for the West as negligibility is controllability pledge) will allow it to "ride out" this protest and to try to break situation by provoking of mass riots over and over again.
Situation "rocking" can proceed for years but animosity of the West and absorption of the Russian bureaucracy into its problems will make Belarus defenseless in front of deterioration of global economic conjuncture. Once ill-matched crowd of liberals can squeeze to power - and to kick the country back to 1992-1994.
Dissatisfied with social status can study today their future on the example of Moldova - its population considered mechanisms of social protection created by communists in 2001-2008 insufficient, now it observes liberals who having come to power destroy these mechanisms with voluptuousness. As a result in social sphere population lost a lot from what two years ago seemed to be going without saying and shamefully insufficient.
Realization of liberal prejudices will displease and demand sharp restriction of human rights which will be entirely supported by all power of the European Union (as liberals, unlike Lukashenko, are "socially close" to him).
Owing to the Antirussian psychology of liberals Belarus from basic transit corridor of Russia quickly becomes a stone on its way - to the delight of Baltic and Ukraine where this transit will be transferred and to own impoverishment and desolation.
How to avoid realization of this inertial scenario?
Only with sharp intensification of development of Belarus on the basis of new, breaking through technologies. Their natural source - Russia, where they don't find application because of surplus of petrodollars, monstrous bureaucratism and arbitrariness of both global and Russian monopolies.
It is interesting to note that all these three barriers to technological progress are absent completely in Belarus.
After destruction of the USSR and termination of financing of many breaking through researches (especially within the limits of the Minister of Defence) Russia turned in some kind of "cemetery of technologies" many of which possess high commercial potential.
A lot of businessmen got enriched due to the search and sale of domestic workings out abroad. Though many discoveries remain inaccessible to foreign buyers because of patriotism of their developers, privacy or exclusive novelty which potential buyers can't imagine.
In the developed countries similar workings out partially weren't carried out at all (market economy didn't allow to work "for future", developing designs not capable to find fast application), partially were blocked by means of patent mechanisms.
Developed countries can't master many of these technologies because of counteraction of global monopolies. While Belarus objectively, "on pain of death" is interested in sharp, spasmodic growth of production efficiency.
It is difficult and hard task demanding deep modernization of not only system of governing but also of the Belarusian society itself. What doesn't change is doomed to destruction.
Belarus which in the Soviet period was some kind of "testing area" for working off not only industrial but also social technologies, under condition of technological jerk it has every chance on prosperity in conditions of even cruel global crisis.
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