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Michael Delyagin: What Doctor Will Come to Putin – Black or Red?

Michael Delyagin: What Doctor Will Come to Putin – Black or Red?
22.12.2011

Source: Michael Delyagin answers questions of “Mir Novostey”

- What are social and economic results of the year? How did we, the Russians, live the year? Whether everything was as it was supposed?

- If to speak about coming to the end 2011 – it was time of rotting, inertial slipping to system crisis to which, however, is still far enough.

The main result is that expensive oil ceased to help Russia. Let’s see: prices has jumped up more than by third and for unprecedentedly long keep at exclusively high level – while growth acceleration hasn't occurred. Moreover: investment crisis was seen in the beginning of the year and real incomes of "dear Russians” decreased.

It is the diagnosis to all economy: corporations and the budget choke with money, while population grows poor. Thus rich become even richer – it’s enough to look at the lists of legal billionaires. The middle class and poor population becomes poorer (it is visible from reduction of a number of visitors of stomatologic clinics): the number of poor (people with incomes below a living wage) has grown only in the first half of the year by 2 million people – we are talking about the third on population city of the country!

Demonstration of full defenselessness of Russia in front of external shocks was also unexpected: in September when possibility of bankruptcy of Greece caused compression of interbank crediting in Euro zone, shortage of liquidity - that liquidity was pumped out from our market. Out of the blue we without any internal cataclysms received rouble and stock market falling. The state undertook no measures to increase stability of Russia - though the world and European crises gather pace.

- What events in social and economic sphere are rememberable for you?

- I will keep in mind final refusal of delirium of modernization. All hopes that the ruling click will pass from words to actions vanished definitively.

It was unpleasant.

Russia – almost unique big exporter of oil and gas which can't live at the expense of their export because of numerous population and rather heavy natural climatic conditions. At the same time our bureaucracy is unique among countries-exporters which with exclusive sequence tries to do it.

Capital outflow which official forecast has grown almost three times – to 85 billion dollars – attracts attention. Appointment of deputies of the State Duma and the president Putin has nothing to do with it: there are simply no objects of application of the capital in the country without modernization. The more we receive from expensive oil, the more leaves the country: without modernization money simply becomes superfluous.

Unforgettable reform with time started by Medvedev due to which we live on summertime in winter having difference of two hours from natural, astronomical - is maximum result of modernization. As a result the majority of people (in the Internet polls three quarters of respondents complain of it) suffer difficulties with falling asleep and wake up. Children suffer even more, but it is favourable to the reports and business – growth of consumption of energy though hits in our pockets enriches power men and promotes increase in rates of increase of gross national product.

But the main thing which I will keep in memory - adoption of law about reform of the budgetary organizations which will start destroying all budgetary sphere from July, 1st, 2012. It will provide the growth of a number of paid services (and, accordingly, decrease of availability) including education and public health services. Possibility of privatization of budgetary objects by joint efforts of the director and the official supervising it will also increase.

Transfer to directors of budgetary organizations of the right to define the salaries already leads to enrichment of administrative personnel at the expense of robbery of those who works. It is already seen both in public health service and in educational sector – with heavy consequences for those who tries to be cured or study.

- What tendencies were seen most brightly?

- Besides all stated above – it became visible that devaluation ceased to urge economy. It is caused by exhaustion of stocks of capacities and qualified personnel, as well as by exclusive volume of critical import without which a number of manufactures will stop (if won't simply blow up) and population stays without home appliances, clothes and considerable part of meal.

4. What unexpected for you did happen in the country this year? Or everything’s according to the plan?

There are enough surprises.

Degradation of the state administration entered new level: all year long the state bravely battled for decrease in deficiency of the budget – at the time when it was strongly proficient.

The success of the Customs Union which visually increased goods turnover between its members - and its renewal into formally already existing EuroAsian Economic Community (EEC) was a good surprise for me. Probably, Putin simply forgot about already existing EurAsEC, however G.Rapota once already supervising the body was appointed the head of the new structure.

Probably, it became the way of delicate liquidation of the Customs Union: the ruling click pushed Russia into WTO meaningly destroying our economy – within WTO frameworks, no matter what professional lobbyists say, customs union can unite only its members.

Against expected destruction of remaining enterprises following joining to WTO on crushing terms in the style of Kirghizia it’s obvious that Putin's statement about necessity of re-industrialization – simple hot air. Though the fact that he quoted Khodorkovsky, even if without crossing the line between a word and deed made nevertheless impression.

The fact that the share of credits (including for the term up to half a year) in so-called “foreign investments” jumped up from little more than 80% to almost 95% at the expense of mysterious Swiss credits also became surprise. In the 1st quarter the Russian financial system received from Switzerland 24,0 billion dollars, in the 2nd – 18.9, in the 3rd – 20,2 billion, at that most part of those credits, as far as it’s possible to judge, came back to Switzerland before termination of the corresponding quarter. The matter is not that those credits made 47,2% of "the involved foreign investments” - the matter is that economic sense of moving of those enormous means till now remains a riddle.

- What should we wait in the coming year? What should be corrected next year not to repeat errors of the departing year?

- In 2012 slipping to system crisis will proceed, but it won't come yet despite of expected splashes of protests in connection with appointment of the president Putin (certainly, “as a result of the most democratic elections in the world”) and in autumn under the influence of barbarous reform of budgetary organizations.

Economic growth will be slowed down to 3% or less despite of rise in price for oil. This year powerful contribution to it was brought by restoration of commodity stocks after the crisis and growth of consumer crediting (all gain of retail goods turnover was received at its expense) – factors which won't be valid next year.

To "correct" something in the state existing, as it’s possible to understand, for the sake of larceny, not for the development of society is senseless: it is necessary to change everything radically. Total corruption, lie and violence – diagnoses incompatible with life: our state should be cured. But Putin is able “to send doctors” only to oligarchs: obviously, he is incapable to call him.

Consequently the doctor – black or red - as it will turn out - will come by himself.

But a bit later.

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