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Currency of the Raw Empire Falls from Knees Bites the Dust under Dollar

Currency of the Raw Empire Falls from Knees Bites the Dust under Dollar
09.06.2012

The dollar exchange rate on Thursday, May, 31 on the MICEX went up the level of 33 rubles for the first time from the middle of 2009 - the dollar cost was 33,005 rubles that is 24,5 kopeks higher than the previous closing. The dollar grew against the falling of the world prices for oil and decrease in common currency on Forex. Oil becomes cheaper during the auctions in the morning on Thursday as a result of fears related to the prospects of satisfactory solving of a crisis situation in Europe.

At 11:30 average rate of US dollar to the Russian ruble taking into consideration “tomorrow” as due date at the auction of uniform trading session increased by 3578 points (1 point corresponds to 0,01 kopeks) in comparison with average rate of the previous trading day and made 32,9173 rubles. In comparison with the level formed by the same time the day before, weighted average dollar cost grew by 4664 points.

Thus Euro kept at the level of around 40,86 rubles, the dual currency basket rose to 36,5 rubles.

Experts of the Center of Economic Analysis of "Interfax" connect dollar strengthening with speculative dealing for a rise appeared against becoming cheaper oil and negative coming from Europe related to the debt market of Spain.

However, economic observer of NEWSru.com Maxim Blant pays attention to the that fact that ruble falls not only in relation to dollar, but also to the uniform European currency which course at the height of the next round of the European debt crisis safely overcame a mark in 40 rubles and continued its growth. According to Blant, situation in the Russian currency market reminds "smooth devaluation" of the end of 2008 - the beginnings of 2009, with the only difference that four years ago that process began after collapse in the world stock and commodity markets.

Now participants of the market, probably, decided not to wait for the catastrophe and, bearing in mind recipes to which the Russian monetary authorities resort, decided to begin speculation for the rise in good time.

Oil of the reference brands Brent and WTI becomes cheaper as a result of fears related to the prospects of satisfactory solving of a crisis situation in Europe. Since the beginning of May Brent oil went down in price by 14% - it’s the worst result since May, 2010.

The day before ruble endured "Black Wednesday", having lost for a day about 60 kopeks to dollar because of strengthening of run-away of investors in dollar assets against amplifying external negative.

The course of uniform European currency fell in relation to dollar following the results of the auction on May, 30 to a mark lower 1,24 dollars for euro, it happened for the first time from the middle of 2010. Dollar exchange rate to Japanese currency get reduced to 79,07 yens for dollar against 79,5 yens for dollar by the end of the previous auctions, news agency RIA Novosti reports.

On Wednesday attention of investors was attracted to Spain where problems of the banking sector, in particular, of the fourth bank of the country Bankia, led to a growth of profitability of ten years' Spanish state bonds. Besides, on Tuesday the largest and the most authoritative after S&P, Moody's and Fitch rating agency among investors - Egan-Jones - lowered country rating by some steps.

Costs for possible granting of the financial help for the country could make about 380 billion euro and it is not known yet, whether the main creditor - Germany - will agree on similar volume of means, agency MarketWatch writes.

Situation in the domestic currency market on Wednesday was aggravated against activization of purchases of dollars and euro. Fears concerning external risks coming from eurozone force players to buy currency up pushing its course to local maxima.

The Central Bank returned on the currency market to constrain ruble depreciation

Till May, 30 the Central Bank was caring out careful policy in question of currency interventions, giving the market signal that weakening of ruble quite suits regulator and speculators can search for further levels where the Central Bank will continue constraining ruble depreciation more actively.

However on Wednesday the Central Bank increased currency sale in the domestic currency market in 4,2 times in comparison with Tuesday. The volume of currency sold on Wednesday made about 2 billion 250 million rubles (about 69 million dollars), "Interfax" reports.

On May, 28 the Central Bank acted as the seller of currency in the currency market for the first time since the middle of January, having sold about 3,1 million dollars. On Tuesday the Central Bank increased the volume of interventions in five times, having sold already nearly 16 million dollars.

In the first half of May the Central Bank of the Russian Federation bought currency (totally about 2 billion dollars), then it didn’t participated in operations in the currency market within six working days from May, 18 to May, 25. The Central Bank’s leaving the market coincided with a rise in price of the American currency above the level of 31 rubles for dollar.

The Ministry of Finance Assured: Nothing Threatened to Ruble

Earlier the Ministry of Finance declared that there are no serious bases for weakening of ruble. "We have rather serious inflow of currency in the form of export receipts. Prices for oil, may be, a little went down, but all the same they got stabilized and are rather high to provide necessary inflow", - the Minister of Finance Siluanov declared soothingly.

He added that he doesn’t expect "any serious fluctuations of ruble". He didn’t explain what scale he considers serious.

Maxim Blant notes that Siluanov, speaking about factors which influence a course of the Russian national currency, casually or intentionally limited himself to export currency revenue, "having forgotten" about prompt outflow of the capital from the country which doesn't become weaker and even promptly grows irrespective of prices for oil. Neither end of elective cycle, nor appointment of the new government, nor crusade "against offshore and short-lived companies declared by Victor Zubkov at the beginning of the year improved situation.

- I would note that only for May ruble lost 10 percent and continues its falling, - editor-in-chief of Forum.msk Anatoly Baranov noted. – It has been started falling just after Putin's inauguration, in the first day of the auction after the holidays it stepped over the mark in 30 rubles for dollar. On May, 19th it was already 31 and to May, 30th - 32. It continues to weaken. While it was getting stronger all pre-election February, to February, 29th having gone down lower 29 rubles for dollar. If there is no connection with electoral process, what is the connection then? Citizens were promised as in films of Perestroika time "To give everything to people!" In reality salaries are getting decreased at face value, if to speak about the course, citizen Putin knocked us off for 10 percent. It’s him merit as exchange rate of the Central Bank is being defined now in the directive way. Perhaps, he called it stability, but from the next week it would be already called "devaluation" because Putin can execute his promises only "at face value".

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