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|24 jan 2020|
Margin of Safety of the Russian Society Has Been Exhausted
Delyagin Michael 12.07.2012
In 2010-2011 Russia unwittingly suffered three deep, qualitative changes principally bringing vitality of the social and economic model down.
First of all, "oil economy departed this life”. Increase in oil price by 38,2% in 2011 for the first time didn't lead to acceleration of growth of gross domestic product: we had the same 4,3% as before. Thus, economy ceased to react to the main factor of the ten years' development – improvement of external environment.
It is essentially important that economic growth (even in the I quarter of 2012 when after all it got accelerated a bit – to 4,9 %) doesn't hold out to threshold level in 5,5% minimum necessary for maintenance of sociopolitical stability. Corresponding researches were carried out by request of the government in the middle of "zero" years — and then at mid-annual growth higher than 7% - seemed to be quite harmless. But today when Russia has been living out of this limit for more than 3,5 years and economic growth doesn't react even to sharp growth of oil prices it becomes clear: it is a verdict. Existing model of economy in which domination of corruption does impossible not only competition and protection of property, but also development as it is, is simply incapable to reach this level. Never.
As economic growth is lower than threshold in 5,5% not all will have "sweet gingerbreads" and groups of influence start pressing and gnawing each other for the money which is necessary for satisfaction of their growing demands. While population is the most deprived of civil rights group in conditions of "sovereign democracy". Consequently even in 2011 when large corporations and the federal budget choked with money, incomes of the population grew by pitiful 0,8%. Taking into account that incomes of billionaires (and "offshore aristocracy" as a whole) grows in domestic "offshore paradise for rich" practically under every circumstances and official inflation is underestimated approximately twice, the bulk of the Russians start living worse. If to estimate it more precisely, real income of 90% of the population of Russia in aggregate decreased not less than by 7,5%.
It should cause discontent: pauperization in crisis is clear and natural, but in conditions of evident prosperity of the rich loss of even small sums is felt extremely painfully.
Economic braking provoking sociopolitical destabilization was doubled by the second high-quality change of Russia – formation of a new social majority.
Nearly two thirds of the Russians who solved problems of survival by 2010 cardinally changed requirements of the society: as always in such situations "bread and circuses" is not enough now, it showed to the state powerful request for justice including in policy. (Actually protest of December-June was caused by the fact that huge masses of Russians, having earned at last for tolerant life for the first time felt themselves citizens and for the first time came to vote consciously). It seems that only Putin reacted to that request and only in pre-election articles. While corruption state living for the sake of robbery of people and legalization of the stolen in the West can answer population only with lie and OMON which additionally expand and strengthen the protest.
The trouble is not only in inability of the state to satisfy increased requirements of the society. The main thing — loss of ability to satisfy those traditional, material requirements which were satisfied even in 2010!
At last, situation is aggravated by behavioural demolition observed at the bottom and middle levels of the system of public administration. These levels of management throughout all thousand-year history of Russia in critical situations on own initiative, automatically passed, in fact, to a mode of deeds and feats damping the most adverse influencies and providing amazing vitality of society.
However recently we observe how in all critical situations these levels of management refuse to fulfill their duties and are engaged (probably imitating top management) in marauding and sabotage. We observe it since forest fires and "sleet". Protected by official propaganda and hopelessly failed projects “SuperJet” and state defense order can serve as an example.
These three qualitative changes essentially change public situation in Russia and at all serenity of official reports make inertial movement on a track cut in "zeros" essentially impossible.
Continuation of liberal social and economic policy and national treachery will push Russia off in distemper. Thus the top layer of еру ruling bureaucracy risks to repeat destiny of Gaddafi and his environment as soon as "senior comrades" from the USA will consider next Navalny quite grown up. To get engaged in country development is an alternative. However it will cause indignation both of the class of corrupt officials (for development will necessarily limit corruption and undermine their welfare) and notorious "world community" (as restoration of the Russian production will inevitably lead to reduction of import).
It is rather difficult choice but attempt to tighten it indefinitely only forces immersion of Russia into system crisis.
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