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|26 jan 2020|
Michael Delyagin: Europe Is Our Partner But There's No Friends There
- Michael Gennadievich, whether the world should wait for the second wave of economic crisis? What will be consequences of its new coil for Russia?
- Aggravation of problems of Southern Europe became the second wave. I hope we will not reach the third wave - collapse of China - in the next 5 years. What the western experts call "global turbulence" and "unprecedented uncertainty" is actually world's entering of new global depression.
It qualitatively differs from crisis. Crisis is a single problem as the one we have in 1998. Roughly speaking, default and devaluation have knocked us on the head - those who survived, rose and went further even more vigorously than before.
While depression smothers slowly and painfully.
The oil world price remains in the near future high - there is too much speculative money in the world. Therefore inflow of means to Russia will proceed - but at growing larceny it will not be enough.
Series of bankruptcies of some part of western banks, including European ones, even large banks in which part of global speculative capitals will be burned during next three years becomes the most serious problem. Part of means stolen by the Russian kleptocracy will also die in this process and it can become independent factor of aggravation of political crisis.
- What are from your point of view possible scenarios of behavior of a present mode in such situation? Whether the throne under "Edinaya Russia" and "law enforcement oligarchs" will be shaken?
- The primary factors shaking throne under "Edinaya Russia" and "law enforcement oligarchs" is liberal social and economic policy objectively aimed at a robbery of people, endarkenment of control system (as corruption - primitive employment which make those who is engaged in it primitive) and aggravation of struggle for power.
Fight between two bureaucratic clans will lead to oblivion and aggravation of the Russian problems to such a degree that it will be already late to solve them after definition of the president in 2012 (most likely there will be nobody to do it). In 2013-2015 we will fall into system crisis which will give possibility of improvement of statehood and transition from reforms to normal development.
- What are possibilities of Russia's exit from that extremely pitiable position in which it found itself last decades?
- Technically all is simple enough - it's stated in the program "Fatherland: Common Sense". It is enough to say that even corruption which seems to our management as not solvable for genetically caused reasons problem could be suppressed quickly enough and elementary - though at observance of elementary and worked out long ago technologies. It's possible to solve this problem not only in Europe and Singapore but also in Georgia which even in Soviet period was almost a synonym of the word corruption.
Explain to me if bad president Saakashvili is better than good president Medvedev?
I don't know either but he coped with corruption at top level having limited it rather essentially.
Therefore the decision of substantial tasks - from technological modernization to restoration of ethnical cultural balance, from overcoming of poverty to reunion of the European Russia and the Urals with Eastern Siberia and Far East - is possible only after improvement of the state or, as a last resort, altogether with this improvement.
It can happen if fear and instinct of self-preservation of some part of our management overcomes its greediness.
But, most likely, it won't happen - and we would have to restore the state in conditions of system crisis which contours and character is difficult to imagine for now.
Only one thing is clear: it is necessary to operate in conditions of very high uncertainty being guided more by ideals and will, than by trustworthy information.
- What, from your point of view, opposition forces should do already now?
- The first and the main direction - organizational activity.
To build in organizational structures, both of federal and national level. To search for adherents and to be on friendly terms with them. To get into all possible public associations - from ones engaged in self-defense of citizens to those which organize joint leisure, from associations of businessmen to clubs of dog breeders.
The second direction - education.
To form isolated structures capable to carry out direct protection of legitimate interests of citizens in force majeure - something like national teams or civil defense.
To develop uniform point of view on key problems and to form public opinion, introducing this point of view into it. Making concessions on minor questions to unite the maximum quantity of ideologically close and reasonable people.
It is necessary to create uniform attitude in society not only in the negative plan - it already exists and not only to "garbage can party" - but, the most important thing, to the positive program: what we will do, when the power will be in our hands.
Certainly, this program is necessary to impose the authorities constantly.
Certainly, if to tell a thief "do not steal", he, most likely, won't stop stealing - but considerable part of bureaucracy consists of fair people and to the beginning of system crisis they should stand meaningly on our side and not to remain in captivity of crazy prejudices and semi-official television.
- On our information recently you represented Russia in the European Parliament. What are your impressions of the European establishment and in particular from so-called "eurosocialists"?
- Delegation was non-uniform: its structure included representatives of "Edinaya Russia", "Fair Russia" and "Fatherland: Common Sense" (I was there as the chairman of the party) and also representatives of scientific community among whom it is possible to allocate, for example, S.Baburin.
The European elites are rigidly focused on realization of own interests and the European bureaucracy devoutly believes that everything that is good for the European Union is good for the whole world. When you show them that on some questions interests of Russia don't coincide with interests of the European Union (for example, many of their requirements within the limits of negotiations about joining to WTO aren't favourable to us, first of all the requirement of increase of the internal price for gas), it is perceived as a sign of barbarous character and underdevelopment of Russia.
Europe - is our commercial and technological partner, in many spheres it is a model for us but there are no friends there.
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