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|26 jan 2020|
Devaluation Is Inevitable, Revolution - Possible
Devaluation of rouble is inevitable, so recurrence of events of 1998 can await Russia, the most pessimistic economists predict. On Monday they are being echoed by a number of large Russian and western newspapers, marking also that indexes of two main Russian stock exchanges at the end of the last week fell to a level which they reached once in 1997. At the same time the government of the Russian Federation still strenuously denies "pessimistic script" of successions of events. Heads of Central Bank and the Russian government promised the past days off not to admit sharp devaluation and sharp fluctuations of rouble. The most interesting citations on this theme are resulted by site Zagolovki.ru.
Despite of seeming repeatability of former position of authorities on that question, experts were guarded with appearance in last applications of a word "sharp", "Independent Newspaper" marks.
The first vice-premier Igor Shuvalov declared on Sunday that Bank of Russia had all opportunities for non-permission of sharp fluctuations of a rouble exchange rate. "Reserves which we possess and the level of development of financial system where we are the world crisis phenomena are not capable to break our financial and economic system", - the first vice-premier emphasized. He also informed that "there is no need to be afraid of sharp fluctuations of rouble exchange rate, as at the moment there are no preconditions and bases for it".
A day earlier the first vice-president of the Central Bank Alexey Uljukaev acted on air of radio "Echo of Moscow" with similar application about "sharp devaluation". "We have good balance of payments, big reserves, strong fundamental bases of economy. The fact that waves of global financial crisis reach us does not mean that rouble should be strongly devaluated", - Uljukaev said. Thus he noted that small fluctuations in connection with easing or strengthening of euro or dollar can take place.
Meanwhile, many economists didn't believe promises of officials.
"Accent on a word "sharp" in speeches of Shuvalov and Uljukaev stuck unpleasantly many. Full concurrence of what is happening now with events of summer 1998 is even more unpleasant. On the eve of default of 1998 Central Bank gave banks stabilization credits which were immediately exchanged for currency and left the country. The same way today Central Bank gave banks liquidity which was immediately exchanged for currency", - director of Institute of problems of globalization Michael Deljagin marks.
On his data, payments of the Russian banks and companies under external credits in the fourth quarter make about 53 billion dollars, however for a month reduction of currency reserves has exceeded 45 billion dollars. "Dynamics of reserves proves that money allocated for support of banks are being exchanged for currency putting pressure on rouble. As well as in 1998 Central Bank now only pretends that it supervises usage of the state help by banks", - Deljagin marks.
"Devaluation of rouble today is inevitable the same way as it was inevitable in 1998. Since 2003 the Russian banks and companies were actively interested in dollars having no opportunity to receive rouble credits. The government did precisely the same as before the default of 1998. Only then banks changed money for their contractors so that they could play in the market of the state treasury bills. There is nothing unexpected that the same policy which was carried out then by Dubinin, Chubays, Kudrin and Ignatyev lead already for second time to the same result - to inevitable devaluation of rouble", - the president of company "Neocon" Michael Hazin considers.
The only choice for the government, as he said, is a choice between smooth and sharp devaluation of rouble. The script of smooth devaluation assumes wasting of Gold and Forex Reserves on maintenance of smoothly decreasing of rouble exchange rate. Sharp devaluation allows to keep GFR. In both scripts defaults of banks and companies having large currency debts are inevitable. However at sharp devaluation there could be less bankruptcies as share of GFR which can be directed on repayment of their debts will be more, the expert believes.
The Russian Stock Is in the Track of August, 1997
Federal Service for Financial Markets of Russia closed stock exchanges till Tuesday because of collapse of indexes of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange and RTS on 14% on Friday tenders. Reduction of prices on oil and panic on global platforms became its reason. The Russian shares on October, 24 cost as much as they cost in 1997. Presence of the state in the market does not help: papers of state companies which used all the week state support lost for that time 16-33%, "Commersant" marks.
On Friday "there was full capitulation in the market, the main trader of "Triplet Dialogue" Timur Nasardinov believes. - On all spectrum of papers quotations were reduced on 20-30%, some shares even reached prices of 1997". So, shares of LUKOIL on RTS were closed at a level of 24,9 dollars, the same prices were in August, 1997. "The market returned to a level of the one 11 years ago, all growth had been eaten by crisis", - the trader of large investment bank speaks.
The new coil of crisis in the share markets began on Thursday in the USA. However the threat of general recession provoked panic at all world stock exchanges and falling of prices for "oil" finished the Russian share market. They talk already that it would be good to stop markets not only in Russia but also in other countries on a background of hysterical sales, "Novye Izvestija" writes.
So, it was in the beginning of the last century when the USA the last time stopped tenders, however, experience showed that it's better to grope a bottom in natural way. "May be we should also stop interbank operations? - senior lecturer of the faculty of share market and investments of Higher School of Economics Alexander Arshavsky asks a rhetorical question. - But then all global economics will stop and nobody would know how to start and to estimate the price of the companies".
Situation in the Russian share market appreciably worsened when on Thursday Standard and Poor's lowered rating of Russia from "stable" up to "negative", analyst of the management company "Alfa-Capital" Maxim Simagin makes comments to "Vedomosti".
All in all for the last week index of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange lost 14,35%, while RTS index - 17,7%, having updated new minima on closing (549,43 points). RTS-2 index thus decreased on 14,99%. It speaks that, Simagin continues, that investors try to get rid of all actives - either of "blue chips" and less liquid papers.
"The market waits for the worse, - the chief of broker management of "Меtropol" Alexander Zaharov considers. On Monday we, probably, shall grow but it's not the end". Though, he recognizes, there are still those who wisj to invest in shares.
The German Professor in Interview to DW: Devaluation of Rouble Is Possible if Foreign Creditors Will Demand Money Back
External debt of Russia grew again, therefore, if foreign creditors will demand money back, devaluation of rouble is possible, professor of Free University of Berlin Volfram Schrettel declared in interview to Deutsche Welle. Answering a question of the Russian journalist, why the Russians should suffer because of the crisis in the USA, the expert recognizes that consequences of the crisis which took place in the USA other countries including Russia felt even in more significant degree. In his opinion, there are several reasons. Firstly - external debt of Russia grew again. "It is more than we assumed", - Schrettel emphasized. He reminded that on October, 16 in the State Duma the chapter of Audit Chamber of the Russian Federation Sergey Stepashin informed that the total debt of Russia now made already 560 billion dollars, that's the debt of Russia was more than its currency reserves. Russia is again net - debtor.
"If foreign creditors will demand money back and such things happens now, Moscow can very quickly get into rather inconvenient position. In that case many observers are afraid of devaluation of rouble", - the expert marks.
"The deputy minister of finance Shatalov said that depreciation of money was not planned. But we know that it cannot be planned. So assurances of the deputy minister cause, more likely, anxiety. The fact that Central Bank buys up shares of companies shows in what condition their finances are. It couldn't be named good", - the German professor considers.
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