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|10 aug 2020|
Devaluation of Rouble Made Putin the President, Medvedev - Prime Minister, Kudrin - Unemployed
Baranov Anatoly 04.10.2011
It is logical enough that after devaluation of rouble which today fell by 35 copecks, the Minister of Finance only yesterday speaking about some balanced and "fair" rouble exchange rate declared fast resignation. However connection between these two events is actually not direct but mediated - through Putin's Saturday statement about actual taking on himself of the role of the president, even if under the cover of a fig leaf of fictitious elections and the main thing - about appointment operating "president" Mitya Medvedev the prime minister.
What did happen or, to be more exact, is taking place that the power so sharply changes its plans?
I will remind that just recently Putin and his pocket Medvedev were going to play intrigue who would become the president of the Russian Federation in 2012 year to the end of election concert with voting in the State Duma. As a whole it is very logical and consecutive: by December situation in the USA will clear up - if the republican (for today it's not clear who it will be - Mitt Romni or someone else) has more chances to become the president, it's only fitting that Putin becomes next Puti-Put of the new leader of unique superstate. While if Obama remains, then it's necessary to leave Mitya in leaders, the more so vice-president Biden officially warned about discontent of democratic administration of the USA with Putin's new term.
Additional factor is fictitious elections in the State Duma which, of course, settle nothing but they quite suit as representative national poll. Though after expulsion of "just Cause" from the pool, "elections" on December, 4th become simply uncontested and don't effect the result of the Kremlin choice - unless real opposition (that is me, Limonov, Kasparov and Udaltsov at uncertain semisupport of other part of non-system opposition) will manage to achieve impressive result with usage of boycott: then the poll will be more or less representative. That's all.
Though even at such uncontested current of legal Russian political process only madman will dare to organize devaluation of the national currency on the eve of election campaign. Neither Putin, nor Kudrin (let's note not simply entrusted person but Putin's personal friend) are not madmen - it means, situation develops contrary to their will. Devaluation - marker of uncontrollability of the process.
It is possible to assume that the Kremlin already knows the results of elections in the USA. Though for already 200 years Washington adhere to iron rule - to keep intrigue of elections whenever possible up to the end. Probability that they have changed the rule - is, of course, present, but it's not big.
It is possible also to assume that Putin unexpectedly "got rid" of "Washington regional committee" and began to prepare from himself Kaddafi (Saddam Hussein, Milosevic, Lukashenko - whatever he wants). But it's hardly possible against not very bright prospects of the country and the mode. Michael Delyagin has already noticed that power preservation for Putin means preservation of life and freedom, while "getting rid" of Washington means for him direct way to loss both. Putin obviously is not going to tear this connection with Washington and the West as a whole. Let's look at the motives which Kudrin (being by the way now in Washington) stated refusing publicly to work as the Minister of Finance in Medvedev's future government: it appears, minister Kudrin doesn't agree with escalating of military expenses which say are spent by the president Medvedev!
Have you ever heard more ridiculous motive for refusal from ministerial post in Russia from official?I I - never. The more so all agents of national security submit today to Prime Minister Putin - both Putin's protégé, the Minister of Defense Serdyukov and the son-in-law of the entrusted Putin's person, former Prime Minister Zubkov. That is if someone can increase military expenses in Russia, it can be only Putin and he does it within the limits of the military reform transforming armed forces of the country in militarized police formations for suppression of own population but not suitable on the external battlefield.
Analysts have already noticed - future Prime Minister Mityu is already prepared "to be responsible for all". As Prime Minister Kirienko, by the way, the first head of the government in the Russian Federation, clever people refused to occupy posts of ministers in his department. As Kudrin now...
Things are not so good with finances in Russia and it can be hardly explained by external economic conjuncture: dollar to which the Russian rouble is connected most of all, on the contrary, evidently becomes stronger. Moreover, for last month the Ukrainian grivna, as it is known, rigidly tied to dollar didn't undergo fluctuations more, than by 1 copeck!
What did happen at the highest levels last days then? Why did Washington allow Putin to cast away the last, as a matter of fact, fig leaf of democracy - fictitious elections and in essence to appoint himself the president for the future term. All this at full nonresistance of the working president who spent all presidential term in the shadow of staff struggle for isolation from "the national leader". It is clear that there should be something very serious for such development of the situation but it isn't quite clear - what exactly. Time, of course, will show. Though often time shows such unpleasant things that it's better not to look at.
Off-schedule devaluation of the national currency - not the reason and the consequence, it's simply marker of trouble. In particular, marker of weak controllability of the system in whole (we will not forget that rouble exchange rate is established directive by the Central Bank and nevertheless...). Probably that events in the Russian economy will go under "the Belorussian" scenario but in the same way they will not be key - it's also only consequence, the reason is deeper. There is probability that Vladimir Putin is preparing for the role of the last president of the Russian Federation - the one we know now.
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