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|6 jul 2020|
The Government Forecasts the Great Depression, It Doesn’t Prepare to the Great War
Baranov Anatoly 28.12.2011
“According to the international experts, the global economy has entered a strip of big or great depression. It’s already not simply powerful comparison, unfortunately, it’s economic fact, anyway — a trend which was formed in the international economy, in the world finance. Therefore all our decisions which we accept should be conformed to the situation in the world economy”, — still for the present president Dmitry Medvedev declared at a session of the State Council.
“Not less essential tests are ahead and we should tell to our citizens about it absolutely frankly, fairly, using simple, but good Russian”, — Medvedev underlined.
It would be quite good, if citizens will be also told in good Russian how the government is going to protect them from so awful threat. Or the management of Russia operates exclusively as forecasts office, so to say, it warns in time and further those are who has not hidden, I am not guilty?
I have not made a mistake talking about the government - after all our president Mitya is going to occupy the post of the prime minister and already now on the sly is choosing his personnel. Here I think may be personnel are decisive, do you agree?
For example, the president personally already appointed the new vice-premier on the questions of defensive industry - very educated and sensible person – there’s only one trouble – he didn’t worked a day in the military - industrial complex, last years he occupied some diplomatic post abroad. That is Dmitry Olegovich Rogozin will need some time simply to understand what is what, at least to learn to utter some formulas habitual in this sphere. I do not doubt that he will cope with it and will learn a lot, but whether he will be in time to the beginning of crisis?
It would be necessary then to make decisions in conditions of time trouble, that is quickly – at Stalin, during Great depression death was the price of error and often enough painful death. Therefore no one occupied the supreme post without sufficient experience, without confidence that you can make necessary decision. Today, of course, the price of error devaluated as well as all the rest - well, one could be dismissed but sent not to Kolyma, to Bruxelles...
But the price of error for the country and the state remained former – that is the difference. The probability of errors - has grown improbably because we enter into a new great depression having not simply weak government, but the government of full nonprofessionals, where discrepancy between the post and speciality written in the diploma is a norm, if not a qualifying sign. So, the good economist supervises the Ministry of Health and children’s doctor – the Ministry of Agriculture, the Minister of Defence is supervised by a person who used to work before with furniture and the vice-premier of the Ministry of Defence with the diploma of the philologist was replaced by the vice-premier with the diploma of the international journalist.
I will repeat once again - I respect Rogozin very much, he is good diplomat, he has good doctorate thesis, he made a lot of good things or at least tried. But how he will put perspective tasks to the branch where he understands nothing and how he will supervise their execution because of it?
However, Rogozin’s Russian is good, but after all he is being appointed not only so that to inform society about the coming troubles?
There is also other problem – as you know, the World War II became the exit from the Great depression, the war in its turn was not competition of the commanders, but direct competition of military-industrial complexes. There are no bases to believe that present depression will end silently and peacefully.
In the field of manufacture of arms and military technology Russia never in its history happened to be in such awful state as now. Even before the First World War which Russia entered being obviously not ready, nevertheless in a number of branches it had not simply sufficiency, but even occupied advanced positions. Modern Russia has no successful branches of defensive complex. Starting from powder mill which, as a matter of fact, remained in the singular to manufacture of cartridges which quantity is not sufficient even now – in peace time.
There is still unresolved problem of a fighter of new generation. The one that flies today is a model of a glider, without regular engine and arms. It is not known even, if the material of the glider is a high-grade structure or light-alloy case intended for flights on low speeds and overloads? But the problem of the engine is already the problem of not only working out, but also of manufacture and labor relations. Let’s say, the factory "Salute" being in the process of destruction today puts prospect of new engine under big question. Whether new vice-premier will be reported about this problem? He would hardly think about it himself...
In the immediate prospects Strategic Nuclear forces of the country will cease to guarantee drawing of unacceptable damage to the probable opponent – most likely Strategic Nuclear Forces won’t be capable to react even now in case of drawing of a nuclear attack from the part of the USA.
We are suffering full catastrophe in the field of conventional armaments, we already aren't capable to make either carriers or modern ships of the first rank, in those spheres where there is still batch production, in case of mass losses manufacture isn't capable to cope with wartime orders. However, it concerns all branches of the military – industrial complex. The greatest problem of this complex is total absence of possibility to organize large-lot production of anything. It’s still possible to show trial or preproduction models at different exhibitions, but there’s no large batch.
A number of these problems are ineradicable in short-term prospect. Let’s say that one can’t construct aircraft carrier for half a year. But it is possible to correct something in conditions of mobilization of economy, depression gives additional stimulus for it - all the same it would be necessary to occupy people on some "public" manufactures – let them be defensive, at that it’s not necessary to wait for depression, it is possible to begin already now. But the problem is that we don’t have any mobilization model of economy, on the contrary, the process of privatization proceeds in the defensive branches. It means already different priorities of the manufacturer, they are very little connected with interests of the national defense. None state defensive procurement doesn't solve this problem – they take money, but who knows what I produced on them, if produced at all.
There is no confidence that the new vice-premier is capable to put things right here.
The story of our military production – foundation of the Tula small-arms factories – to lower dependence of the Russian army on deliveries of artillery pieces of English manufacture comes to my memory. Forced in money, built factories, adjusted some manufacture, while arms still remained noncompetitive in comparison with English one.
Well, they sent commission and found out – production of arms appeared the last among priorities of administration as building boom was observed in Russia of that time and large quantity of accessories, mortgages, nails and similar was required. The steel of special quality was not required for them, they were produced in big quantities. What about the arms? They were also produced from what was at hand.
Situation with Tula factories was corrected accordingly – some were punished and new management concentrated already not on accessories, but on canons. In our time nobody are punished, nobody are dismissed – even if they are taken to prison, it’s done without confiscation of property. The fact that our rockets fly not to the necessary direction and our tanks are quick only during maneuvers we get to leant on the real war, when its already late to improve…
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