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Forecast of the Minister: Economic Growth Will Stop, Able-Bodied Population Will Get Reduced

Forecast of the Minister: Economic Growth Will Stop, Able-Bodied Population Will Get Reduced
06.04.2012

The able-bodied population of the Russian Federation will be reduced by 12% to 2030, the minister of economic development Elvira Nabiullina declared basing on a forecast of the ministry. She mentioned demographic problem as one of the restrictions of long-term growth of the Russian Federation.

"By our estimations, able-bodied population of Russia will be reduced by 12% to 2030", - the minister told on Tuesday at the conference which took place in the Higher school of economy.

It will cause deficiency on a labor market that is a serious problem which will make the state to finance actions softening pressure in this market.

"There are big reserves on decrease in mortality in able-bodied age", - the minister added.

As to the growth of rates of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation, in case of preservation of domination of fuel and energy branches in the structure of economy and bad investment climate they will decrease up to 2-3% a year, Nabiullina declared. Falling of growth rates at such scenario will happen "quickly enough".

“Of course such growth rates are unacceptable for us,” — “Interfax” quotes the minister.

She also declared that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade advanced forecast of the mid-annual price for oil with the brand Urals in 2012 to $115 from $100 on the previous forecast. Thus forecasts for price for oil for 2013 and 2014, according to madam Nabiullina, remained without change. She also forecasted that oil production in the Russian Federation in the next 20 years will get stabilized at a level of 2011 - that is it won't grow and, accordingly, oil based growth resource could be considered worked out.

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From editorial board: Actually madam Nabiullina has been working as the Minister of Economic Affairs for 5 years, it is possible to speak about personal responsibility. She would be probably staked up at Ivan the Terrible, at Stalin – would be given 10 years of imprisonment without right of correspondence, well, at constant Putin she will continue to work. So to say, to develop and deepen.

Firstly, lies are present in her speech. The main growth of economy is reached at the expense of lifting up of prices for hydrocarbons. If the price for oil decreases (the price for gas is usually dependent on oil), while oil extraction remains at the same level, it is necessary to talk not about decrease in growth, but about decrease as that, in absolute figures. But the minister Nabiullina has own "highest arithmetic".

Secondly, Nabiullina understands that it is possible to achieve further growth only at the expense of non-primary branches, but she categorically hides what these branches are and how it’s possible to do in general. Especially in the light of the fact that able-bodied citizens are dying out - who will work, who will provide the growth? Guest workers?

“Reserves on decrease in mortality" is a separate question.

It is necessary to understand that it was possible to reduce mortality earlier, but somehow one has no time to do. It is clear, there was time for gathering petrodollars, not for taking care of people, thanks God madam Nabiullina carries out the duties of the member of board of directors of “Gazprom” besides ministerial ones.

I understand it so that all sincerely count that no one will answer for these millions of premature death? Our country is very remarkable, Dostoevsky is read only half: we have crime, but don’t have punishment…

Anatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk

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