From Monday 10.00 a.m. by Moscow time “Gazprom” entered mode of advance payment in supply of gas for "Naftogaz of Ukraine", is stated in the message of the Russian holding. "Past-due debt of the company for the Russian gas makes 4,458 billion dollars: 1,451 billion dollars for the period from November to December, 2013 and 3,007 billion dollars for April-May, 2014," — is spoken in the message.
Payments according to the proforma invoice for June also haven’t been made. From now on the Ukrainian company receives the Russian gas only in the paid up volumes.
Thus, "Gazprom" actually started sending only transit volumes of gas to the Ukrainian gas transmission system.
The Ukrainian side was prepared for such scenario: the head of "Naftogaz" Andrey Kobolev on Friday declared that Ukraine would do everything possible for uninterrupted transit to Europe. However, according to him, Kiev is also ready to interruption of supply of gas not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe.
Thus Ukraine will feel comfortable till October as the country saved up about 15 billion cubic meter of natural gas in its storages. That is Kiev isn't afraid of summer in case of "gas war", however, there could be problems by winter.
From editorial board: Economy of Ukraine is strongly de-industrialized, therefore needs for gas for industrial sector aren't so great. Ukraine itself extracts enough gas for residential sector. Respectively in summer, when needs of the population for heating are absent, part of gas can be given to industries which makes it possible to live till October. Kiev hopes to solve "southeast issue" and to start bargaining turning over a fresh leaf till October - Poroshenko leaves Yatsenyuk opportunity to make all urgent gas decisions, absolutely new cabinet will start negotiations in autumn.
Price tag for Russia is 4,4 billion dollars, that is much bigger, than all financial help of the West to Ukraine. That is cynicism of a situation - Russia continues to pay also for retaliatory expedition of the Nazi government of Ukraine in the southeast.
Thus almost all value of Ukraine for Europe consists in its unique gas transmission system, which is not simply "pipe", but the whole industry on gas transfer and storage. Let’s note - with unique underground natural gas storages on the basis of coves in the Lvov area. It allows not to depend, for example, on immediate deliveries and in case of need to accumulate stocks for years as it used to be done at Timoshenko’s cabinet. She had, as Putin spoke, “stolen from Russia” stock for one and a half years.
All other richness of Ukraine in relations with Europe is passive. Industry which production can be implemented everywhere, only not in Europe. Quite educated poor white population which is capable to blow up labor market in Europe after opening of borders with the EU (while they don't know what to do with the Polish plumber Pyotr there). Agriculture which is capable to compete with the European agricultural producer and therefore will never receive free entry into the European food market - see example of Turkey.
In principle the only country to which GTS of Ukraine makes big harm is Russia. "Thanks to" existence of GTS Russia hasn’t developed structure of pipelines and production of liquefied gas for years, entirely parasitizing on the Soviet inheritance - work of the Soviet people, as a result milliard properties of "gas princes" appeared in the Russian Federation. Only recently, only thanks to aggressive policy of Ukraine in gas question Russia at last began construction of GTS alternative to the Ukrainian one.
"Gazprom" is ready in case of irregularities in transits through Ukraine to increase deliveries via gas pipelines Nord Stream and "Yamal-Europe" and also to secure its European consumers, having increased filling in underground storages of the EU territories. Rejection of services GTS of Ukraine automatically solves issue of construction of South Stream: if you want gas - don't interfere with its construction.
It is catastrophe for Ukraine as incomplete work of GTS makes it unprofitable, while Russia aspires to diversifying of gas supply to Europe. That is instead of sitting it out and pumping gas, having very good money from it, each next cabinet bit hand which fed it (Azarov's cabinet was not an exception).
Now let’s add war factor in the southeast. Kiev believes that it’s at war with Russia (as in a joke, “the Russian army didn’t come to participate in war”). Actually it is war of Ukraine with Ukraine, at that "both sides" are at war of extermination. For the Kremlin events in the southeast is simply element of gas war, for Kiev it’s war for nonexistent "unity of Ukraine" (unless it’s "unity" if it should be supported by means of tanks), for the southeast it’s already simply survival question, as in Kosovo.
War in the southeast will inevitably pass into subversive and terrorist stage as soon as Kiev will suppress open protest of DPR and LPR. Though if the Kremlin strategists will at last recover consciousness (now they have only gas gate there), subversive and terrorist war will be developed on all territory of the East and the South of Ukraine, outside the borders of self-proclaimed republics.
What is the main vulnerability of any modern state? Naturally communicating systems - communication, transport. Just liquidate the processing center of "Privatbank" and that’s all – there’s no Kolomoysky. While today one needs to use system of “Privatbank” even to pay for the server in Finland.
Destroy only few bridges and rear support of punitive operation, including deliveries of heavy machinery to armies becomes impossible.
It concerns every state, not only Ukraine, certainly. The same trick can be done both with Russia, with Germany, and even with the USA. Though now war in Ukraine is on the agenda. The main vulnerability of Ukraine today is its GTS. It is difficult to imagine what will be, if accidental rocket (or not accidental) will strike gas storage, it’s difficult to say what will remain in radius of many kilometers. The nearest storage, by the way, in the south of the Kharkov area adjoins zone of operations. It will hardly be possible to identify what caused explosion as everything will go to hell.
The more so "Donetsk intifada" will very quickly adjust production of “Qassams” from scraps of the pipes. It’s hardly possible that residential quarters will be aims of such rockets as in Palestine, there are enough vulnerable infrastructure objects in Ukraine... As soon as GTS of Ukraine will be finally made worthless, interest to this country will sharply decline that will be advantageous for Ukraine. Medical starvation is in general very effective method of treatment of many diseases, including mental.