The Russian economy will begin fast reanimation from III quarter of 2009 due to replenishment of stocks which failed in previous half a year and private consumption supported by growth of social expenses. Restoration of the Russian economy, most likely, will take place under scenario "boom and recession", is stated in a strategy of "Renaissance Capital" published by the Russian mass-media. After deep recession of 2009 average rate of increase in gross national product in 2010-2012 will exceed 6%. But after the growth in 2010, peak in 2011 and slowing down in 2012, economy will be reduced in 2013. All over the world, not only in Russia active support of financial system does not lead to the growth of credit and acceleration of money turnover. Thus Federal Reserve System from March till September provided market with almost $1 billion through the repayment of securities, during this time money supply grew only on $39 billion. Money goes on the share and raw market, inflating new bubbles.
Except for metallurgy and building, mechanical engineering, transport mechanical engineering, manufacture of electronic and optical equipment which provided almost third of the general recession of industrial production became the main victims of crisis: crisis accelerated disintegration of the "Soviet", least transformed sectors. It's impossible to replace their drop out: capacities of industry to the crisis beginning were loaded almost completely, their restoration will be fast but short. New recession can be avoided but thorough institutional reforms, many of which the government planned already in 2000 but didn't turn into reality are necessary.
From editorial board: Rats desert the sinking ship waiting for "the second wave" of crisis, Michael Delyagin - the director of Institute on Problems of Globalisation, Doctor of Economics considers.
- Already in the threshold of next empty summit of "B20" Kudrin once fairly specified inevitability of "the second wave" of crisis as a matter of fact refused own words and started broadcasting the beginning of steady growth of the Russian economy, Michael Delyagin reminded. - Unfortunately, attitude of such type of professional optimism to reality remains corporate secret of representatives of the Russian authorities.
There was a new sharp toughening of financial policy in July: money supply (after giving hope for termination of "money famine" growth by 8,6% for the second quarter) not simply lowered rates of increase but got reduced again - this time by 0,3%. As a result from the beginning of the year money supply decreased by 2.8% that reflects unprecedented for all years of reforms toughening of financial policy.
Certainly, partially such compression of money supply is caused by termination of inflow of speculative capitals to Russia and get-away of the Russian subjects of economy from rouble as a result of currency market destabilization in July. However it reflects also the state policy which promotes deterioration of economic conjuncture and growth of uncertainty among businessmen. The most authoritative in the field of macroeconomic of our country Center of Macroeconomic Analysis not for nothing predicts triple growth of a share of "problem and hopeless debts", at that it will grow for some time also in 2010.
In these conditions a number of the Russian bankers in private conversations complain of new and painful for bank system phenomenon - purposeful bankruptcies seemingly diligent corporate borrowers. There was marked a number of cases when reliable, checked up by time partners of banks owning average and quite successful enterprises of real sector in Russia remand on bail of these enterprises quite feasible but large credits without any intention to return them back. After reception of money they get means abroad and then inform bank on inability to return (sometimes even to serve) these credits and suggest it to take away put up enterprises.
So specific go out of business testifies that significant part of the Russian business does not see prospects of work in Russia and, considering crisis inevitable already in the near future, tries to get from the country everything that is possible. Physical departure from the country on a permanent residence of a number not only known oligarchs (including those who have no problems in relations with the state) but also simple large and average businessmen is also noticed. Similar phenomenon, by estimations, is seen also in the environment of large officials: its appreciable enough part works in Russia, as a matter of fact, on a rotational basis as gas workers behind Polar circle having taken out families into London and Switzerland.
Russians, who on the whole have no place to run, perceive the nearest future a little bit differently. On the one hand, according to Levada centre, almost two thirds of Russians expect "the second wave" of crisis in the autumn of this year. Only every fifth does not believe in its coming or considers its improbable, every sixth - is at a loss with the answer. However, on the other hand - and it is exclusively interesting - the majority considers this "second wave" relatively insignificant. So, more than half of Russians consider that in the nearest half a year economic situation in Russia remains about same as now and their financial position will not change. Hardly less a quarter waits for worsening of economic situation and financial position, while 10-12% even hope for improvement.
It is interesting that expectations of Russians correspond to their expectations of October of last year when the beginning of economic crisis was at last realized by our society. Appreciable growth of pessimism and, simultaneously, insignificant increase in optimism took place in winter (the peak of this deviation fell at January).
Simultaneous belief of citizens of Russia in "the second wave" of crisis and relative well-being during the nearest half a year testifies to hope or to its insignificance (as it seems fair as a whole), or to its later, than it was supposed earlier, coming - not in the end of 2009 but only in 2010.
Representatives of the well-fixed part of society having more data and bigger possibilities, show - if, of course, not to take into consideration their compelled participation in official propagation - clearly big uneasiness, Michael Delyagin marks.