The State Duma approved the budget for 2009-2011 in the third, final reading. It seems that situation in the world financial markets rendered no influence on the basic financial document of the country - Duma passed the budget for the next three years in which there’s no place to crisis. In the budget for 2009-2011 175 billion roubles of public funds are allocated for purchase of shares and bonds. Such increase in charges became actually the only attribute of crisis in the budget.
Parameters of the budget came to us from some other reality: inflation in Russia will make 8,5 percent and by 2011 will decrease up to 6,8 percent. According to Central Bank of Russia, inflation will make 13 percent per year and according to the International Monetary Fund - 14 percent.
In 2008 incomes of Russia from the sale of oil and gas should make 50 percent from total amount of incomes. According to Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin, in 2009 the budget of Russia can be sufficient at the mid-annual price in 70 dollars for barrel of Urals and higher. At the end of October Urals cost in the market less than 60 dollars for barrel and by the end of the year has all chances to be less than 50... While proficiency in 1,9 billion roubles (3,7 percent of gross domestic product) is planned in the budget.
Gross national product in 2009 is planned at a level of 51,5 billion roubles and its growth - approximately 6,7 percent. In reality the growth of gross domestic product in Russia was achieved only and extremely due to oil-and-gas complex, while it was really scanty in a manufacturing industry. The forecast of IMF which has been made also before crisis assumes 5,5-percent growth of gross domestic product in Russia, what will happen in a heat of the crisis is unpredictable at all. Anyway recession has already begun in France, Spain and Germany, Italy balances on the edge.
From editorial staff: Budget for 2009-2011 demonstrates only stiffness of a system of state management of the RF and its utmost inability to work in conditions even a little bit uncomfortable. Incongruity of the budget to the reality only illustrates instability of the system of state management of the RF in the face of critical event – either of the present situation, war, catastrophe, plague or everything else being beyond the scope of ordinariness.
Huge quantity of people and structures work on the project of the budget, but data of budgetary parameters is an art for very limited circle of persons, no more than ten, basically from the government and Duma. The government last two months had other things to do than copying the budget, the same could be said about the parliament. The same Reznis, likely, struggled more with the Spanish justice, than with reflection of world crisis in the budget of the country.
By and large, we work under the management of "monthly government" - Vladimir Putin's cabinet continue gathering not more often than once in a month as though neither in the country, nor in the world anything special occur. Anti-recessionary staff had not been formed at last – some kind of it was formed few days ago, but for some reason supervised not by Putin but Naryshkin. It means that separate members of the government "responsible for crisis" all the time operated in individual and in many respects chaotic order – naturally they didn’t care of the budget...
Most brightly about the degree of unreadiness of the government to the crisis speaks that fact that, despite of obvious reduction of demand on a labour market, the Ministry of Public Health and Social Development yesterday increased a quota of foreign labour power intake in two times – that’s it fulfilled an inquiry formed at the end of the last year, in completely other economic situation.
Actually, the part of functions on formation, as a matter of fact, of the new budgetary document can be taken by Duma or Federal Assembly as a whole, having formed the interfractional Anti-recessionary commission which target would include preparation of "anti-recessionary" amendments into laws, preparation of "anti-recessionary" acts and first of all - "anti-recessionary" budget. Why was this obvious thing not done?
The answer - in the monolithic-bureaucratic circuit of management of the parliament by "Edinaya Russia" which, in its turn, is not independent in its decisions but depends completely on the government and its chairman - leader of ER Vladimir Putin. Naturally, at such bulky circuit of decision-making, moreover taking into account "vigorous idleness" of the known politician it’s useless to expect for any operative decisions of Duma. Deputies – members of ER quietly wait when a package of "anti-recessionary" laws will be lowered to them from the government and they, certainly, will at once accept them without reading. It’s - the maximum efficiency which is possible to expect from this herd of true adherents of general line.
Naturally, such inertial excluding both any initiative and any responsibility mechanism of state management is not suitable for anything during crisis time. We on FORUM.msk already one year ago spoke that there would come to Russia the most terrible for it crisis - crisis of management. Budgetary document accepted by Duma is reflection of an administrative collapse in Russia.
ánatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk