Recently director of the Russian and Asian programs of the Washington Institute of Global Safety Nikolay Zlobin acting on presentation of the book "Opposition. Russia - the USA" assumed that as a result of all political crises shaking the country new political elite which would lead the country to Europe would come to authority in Ukraine.
"I think Ukraine is on the right way. It reminds me very much Italy of 1950th years where they had crises every half-year but at the end normal European state appeared", - Zlobin said. In his opinion, political twists and turns in Ukraine eventually will lead to appearance of new Ukrainian political elites. "There is normal political strike, competition, natural selection in Ukraine - in result new political elite will regain feet. There is nothing of the kind in Russia," - Zlobin said. He is convinced that potentially Ukraine has big chances to outstrip Russia and to become much more modern and modernized in the political and economic plan. Zlobin noticed that now Russia turns into "a filling station for the Western Europe and China serving other economies".
On principle I won't argue with Nikolay Zlobin on the matter of Ukraine. I am sure that the Ukrainians, as well as other fraternal people, by themselves, without our "valuable advices" will manage to handle their future. Different thing is - Zlobin's words about "filling station" into which Russian has turned out long time ago for Germany and is becoming for China. As a matter of fact, it's what I have written about recently on FORUM.msk, about raw model of the economy imposed to the country by Yeltsin and fixed by Putin. I'll remind what I am talking about.
Already at the USSR, in 1973 as a result of the Arabian oil embargo against the West the world prices for oil repeatedly jumped up. In result petrodollars flew into the country. People have got accustomed to them, something similar to narcotic dependence appeared, the USSR didn't notice as it "got hooked" on "oil needle". Process of establishment of external "oil-and-gas drug addiction" of the USSR was completed in 1980th, when under the initiative of Germany known gas main "Urengoj - Pomary - Uzhgorod" was constructed and put into operation.
By that moment the nomenclature of the CPSU ruling in the country was already decaying. However sense of proportion was still been observed. Therefore petrodollars went basically on good business. A part of them went on purchases of the highly technological equipment abroad for the Soviet manufacturing industry, mainly for military and industrial industry and other high technology branches presenting scientific and technical progress. Another considerable part went on purchases abroad of the foodstuffs and consumer goods for wide broad masses.
As a result of Gorgachev's perestroika and events of 1991 old nomenclature of the CPSU was dismissed from authority having made way for "democrats" whose protege was Yeltsin. It is necessary to say that "democrats" were not by themselves, 90% of them were "assistants" to KGB. In other words, in 1991 the nomenclature of KGB "pushed aside" the nomenclature of the CPSU, all over again having acted through the secret agents and then in 1999 when Putin appeared gained a footing.
New ruling "elite" at first had precise plan of action. It consisted in the following. Firstly, the Russian Federation, having initiated ruing of the USSR, at one stroke got rid of "heavy burden" on behalf of brotherly union republics. I'll stress that it's asserted not only by me. Putin spoke about that very thing in the beginning of September: At a meeting with members of international club "Valdai" in Sochi Putin declared that it was Russia that "was the initiator of the termination of functioning of the USSR" and that "if there was no position of Russia, the USSR still would exist".
Secondly, in result of "reforms" of Gaydar financing of highly technological, high technology industries was terminated, the Soviet working class and technical intelligency were thrown down a sewer. At last, thirdly, the consumption level of broad masses of workers was sharply reduced, the system of social guarantees was liquidated, inherent to Soviet people confidence in the future was abolished.
As a whole, in the country in 1991 the process of social degradation, social recourse fixed at Putin started. For short historical term Russia made a huge jump back from socialism not at all in capitalism but more likely in feudalism or, more precisely, - neo-feudalism. What for, for the sake of what?
The answer is banal. Having dumped "superfluous burden" on behalf of sister republics, advanced industry, science and social gains of the workers, new nomenclature liberated huge weight of petrodollars to which it found at once "better", from its point of view, application - it began stealing them shamelessly in process of receipt. This is the essence of "criminal revolution begun in the USSR 20 years ago and proceeding in the Russian Federation till now.
It is necessary to say that during the most part of "valiant" ninetieth years world prices for oil were rather low. Because of it new kleptocratic "elite" had especially nothing to share with people, therefore the country was being stormed. The situation changed with Putin's arrival, in parallel to which arrival the world prices for oil all over again began to raise smoothly and then started growing by leaps and bounds down to a summer of the current year.
In result ruling supreme state bureaucracy and oligarchy controlled by it got so many petrodollars that it became sufficient not only to parasitic plundering by "elite", people also started receiving dribs and drabs for free, that's outside of interrelation with growth of labour productivity. This is the essence of notorious "Putin's stability" which would be more correct to call "stability of degradation", "stability of rotting".
What is the prospect the present regressing system has, what term of existence is given to it? I mean what is THEORETICALLY possible maximum term all this disgrace can proceed? The answer - maximum from 20 up to 40 years. Here you are why.
The raw model of economy can't be reformed basically as the present corresponding to it "elite of degradation" will never allow to do it - it destroyed the USSR, stopped and put scientific and technical progress back, closed factories and scientific research institutes, turned working class, intelligency and wide broad masses into lumpens and beggars not for it.
As to ostensibly appearing class of fine and medium capitalists whom, by the way, bureaucracy oppresses ruthlessly, they will also have possibility to do little as in sphere of traditional for XX century industrial and agricultural production Russia for many reasons from climate up to demography occupies obviously losing positions in a modern global competition with such countries as China, Korea, India, Indonesia and so on.
The only way for Russia to create competitive economy in XXI century - to pass to innovative model of development. Putin and his ministers, by the way, even speak about it at times. They will do however nothing because they cannot and do not want and all their "postechnologies" and "nanotechnologies" Chubajs - like is a shameless profanation and new feeders for kleptocracy.
Moreover, even if to assume impossible - that authority will have a desire to introduce the innovative model, necessary scientific, technological, industrial and personnel base existing for it in the USSR, has been already MEANINGLY destroyed by "reforms" and its last rests are in condition of IRREVERSIBLE dying, the last carriers of the Soviet professional skills and knowledge will abandon us in the nearest future.
Thus, Russia at present kleptocratic "elite" is deadly adhered to raw model. IF it's so, the economy of the Russian Federation will exist equally so long as the present abnormally great demand on hydrocarbonic raw material and corresponding to it repeatedly overestimated prices for oil and gas.
However, as against Russia, many other countries do not regress but continue development, introduce innovations, support scientific and technical progress. It means that sooner or later the mankind will find alternative carriers of energy of not mineral origin and will start their introduction into every day life. It will become the death sentence to "economies of hydrocarbons" either in Russia or in other similar "petrostates" - Venezuela, Iran, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Nigeria. There are different forecasts when it will take place but more often than others the period between 2030 and 2040 years is being referred to.
Approximately to the same time, probably, other important circumstances will get ripened. Firstly, the strategic nuclear potential of the Russian Federation staying from the beginning of 1990th years in a stage of irreversible degradation will inevitably shrink up to inadmissibly small sizes. Simultaneously in the USA and in some other countries breakthrough qualitative changes in military sphere, in particular, creation of ABM system on new physical principles are probable in 20-30 years, it will devaluate the nuclear weapon of XX century and will deprive Russia of the last inherited from the USSR attribute of a superstate remained.
Secondly, qualitative changes in the sphere of demography will be inevitably get accumulated, therefore sharply reduced in number, got old Russian people will cease to be state-forming in territory of the Russian Federation, the tendency on prompt transformation of Russia into Turco-Muslim, partially occupied by Chinese will become prevailing.
In other words, after a huge regressive jump from socialism in feudalism creeping to a lower social stage comparable to the one of the times of ruin of the Western Roman empire and Great resettlement of peoples.
The question is natural: whether there is a real alternative? I am sure that at present authority, at present ruling "elite" there are no other variants. But if authority and "elite" will leave in bloc, will disappear for ever the earlier - the better, there may appear some chances. Though it's been already referred to as revolution...