Vice-premier of the Russian government, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin declared that budgetary deficiency and continuation of devaluation of rouble waits for Russia in 2009. Kudrin expects that in 2009 deficiency of the budget of the country could make from 1,5 up to 2,5 bln. roubles (from 50 up to 86 billion dollars), minister declared about it on air to information telechannel "Vesti - 24" on Saturday, probably, instead of a New Year's congratulation from the economic block of the government. The coming year, in opinion of the Russian vice-premier, becomes the most difficult not only for the Russian economy but also in general "it will be the worst year for economic during post-war time".
"Next year we expect reduction in incomes in comparison with our forecast, we have already approved the budget. Precisely we shall not receive oil-and-gas incomes as we planned", - our financial genius informed. Well, who could imagine such a thing? In fact nearly yesterday they were approving the budget and nobody at all mentioned - just approved by the lump.
What for, by the way, if already then everything was clear? There is no answer.
"As a result the budget will not receive necessary volume of incomes for maintenance of charges. We expect that this sum will make from 1,5 up to 2,5 bln. roubles", - the head of the Ministry of Finance said. A man, certainly, speaks wonderfully. In a summary of "Commersant" tongue-tie is being masked by rewriting but on air... Well... It was better to get some beautiful woman, give her to read it from a piece of paper and say, for example, that Kudrin thinks so. While thus to hear such from the supreme state manager - not only cream will turn sour but also share indexes.
According to Kudrin, shortfalls, by the way, "will be replaced from reserve fund". It is interesting what they thought when they supported rouble, having spent on it half of gold and currency reserves?
I just want to remind for a second that we need soon to pay on external debts of the companies, it's approximately 600 billion dollars. And we don't have so much. Companies so much the more. What shall we take from Reserve fund?
Further Kudrin said that devaluation of rouble will proceed, however essential change of a dollar exchange rate will not happen. How could it be? In relation to euro or something else? If it won't happen in relation to rouble, how then devaluation will proceed?
"Now we plan that on average next year it will be 31-32 [rouble for dollar], - ITAR-TASS quotes the minister. - Devaluation will cause additional inflation. All import goods will become more expensive. Inflation in Russia will grow. It will fall in the USA and grow in Russia. And, certainly, rates of the credit cannot be lower than inflation".
Did somebody understood something? Probably, gasoline in the USA which is cheaper, than in Russia, even now, will be much more cheaper, while it will be expensive for us. Foodstuff will be even more expensive in Russia, because everything is import, while in the States - again cheaper. That is on one dollar in the USA it will be possible to buy 2 times more, than on the same dollar in Russia (though earlier it always was on the contrary). Actually for such "achievement" it could be possible to ask mister Kudrin to sweep somewhere or to wash utensils in ícDonalds instead of heading Ministry of Finance, what do you think?
Thus, under Kudrin's forecasts, depending on the world prices for oil inflation next year can decrease up to 11% or, on the contrary, increase up to 15% (this year it will make, by calculations of Ministry of Finance, approximately 13,5-13,8%). I don't like this forecast most of all - either it will go down, or will be raised. It will be a home run in any case.
And it seems to me that the government will be replaced next year. Itself will run away by itself, or will not have time for it. Because, if will not run away, not the government but people today occupying the Russian Federation will be replaced. Last people will get somewhere, more likely on a churchyard, the Chinese or even Tadjiks will come instead. They will build roads, wash utensils, will return bottles and plant wheat. They will guide the order. The thief will sit in prison, the lunatic in asylum and in Ministry of Finance will be headed by Minister of Finance instead of the provincial bookkeeper.
While their children will play the Russians as children of today's Americans play Indians...