Even effective anti-recessionary measures of its government will not help Russia to overcome crisis quickly, it was declared by director of World Bank Klaus Roland who made public speech at the Russian economic forum in Ekaterinburg, RBC-daily writes.
Unemployment will grow up to 10%. "Under the forecasts of WB, basic increase of unemployment should be expected in monocities that can lead to serious social consequences", - Roland warned.
Economists and businessmen wait for the second wave of crisis. The most difficult period of crisis is still ahead, Klaus Roland also agrees. Return to the rates of manufacture reached to October, 2008 in a number of branches, as he said, will take several years.
Russia in any case should diversify economy, to get rid of raw dependence and actively invest infrastructure.
From editorial board: Even quite liberal RBC-daily and not Pravda-info writes, making comments on the statement of the head of WB that the Western approval of anti-recessionary measures of Moscow had more likely ideological character. The government (both in Russia and other countries) struggles not with the reasons but with crisis consequences, Evgeny Nadorshin from IS "Trust" asserts. He considers measures of support of the banks effective but he doesn't observe active realization of other anti-recessionary measures: "State guarantees haven't work well, money is being spent not intensively and it's not for sure that authorities can solve a problem of the second wave which can reduce considerably a number of banks". The director of department of strategic analysis of PKF Igor Nikolaev is more categorical in estimations of actions of the government: "Economic indicators unequivocally say that governmental measures were inefficient". Even the president Dmitry Medvedev recognizes that state guarantees do not work and support of the share market was an error, it's one more open list of failures, I.Nikolaev believes.
So, today it's possible to result estimations of activity of the government of the Russian Federation from liberal economists and they will sound as newspaper "Pravda" in its best years.
However, how the government of dependent economy can struggle with the reasons of world crisis if they are beyond ken? One should think about it when achieving such degree of integration of the Russian Federation in economy (and therefore such degree of external dependence) that when it blows in Europe we are laid out.
Support of the share market which got away half of the state reserves was not an error but quite conscious crime. What is the reason to confuse the terms? Firstly they rescued their own property, then began thinking about the state one. If it was possible to act differently, if the Russian state system represents today private-state partnership in which the state component - is not the most important one?
Power in the country belongs, according to the ancient, pre-Petrine tradition, to a certain clan which on a quite feudal system of "feedings" and tributes supervises national economy, without giving any account of its actions. "Putin's plan" - who knows, what is it? After all it's the state program for some uncertain period.
Naturally, in the modern world such state system can be only dependent and this dependence suits everybody: the USA are quite satisfied with the fact that it's more or less quiet in the Russian Federation, nothing breaks out to spoil illusions of Obama's voters, while you can even eat each other inside the Russian Federation, it shouldn't after all become a subject of the international scandal. Therefore, by the way, Obama's administration will sharply reduce without it small support of institutes of a civil society and independent mass-media in the Russian Federation. Russia of Medvedev-Putin is "democratic" state, it is not necessary there.
For the masters of the Russian Federation such situation is especially pleasant: they are ready to execute every external politesse, to eat up citizens they are, as pioneers, always prepared. They have both power and money, either is not limited.
There's only one way out for Russia as for the country and people - rely on own forces - and one hope - that in conditions of world crisis Putin's elite will fail to act adequately and boasted Putin's stability will end up with big collapse, thus some forces inside the country will manage not only to regain control over situation but also to give new idea, new direction of development, new modernization project to the state. Otherwise someone else will do it in our territory.