Repetition of severe forest fires of 2010 making cities (though in Siberia, not in the Central Russia) choke from “gas attacks” led to poor harvest. Fires are caused by the fact that liberal Forestry Code practically destroyed all forest protection in interests of speculative business and poor harvest was repeatedly worsened by unpunished arbitrariness of monopolies and joining of the WTO – it’s about to become significant political factor.
Poor Harvest Which Is Being Hidden
By estimates, 7,6% of crops were lost this year. Real loss — 36,5 billion roubles, but the Ministry of Agriculture is now discussing only possibility to ask 6 billion from the government and asks insurers not to delay payments. If to trust landowners, not all farms received insurance for a crop failure of 2010; the share of the insured crops grew from 4% to not less pitiful 10%.
Grain stocks for the beginning of August are lower than the stocks of last year by 14,8%. To the end of August productivity is lower than in catastrophic 2010: 19,2 centners from hectare are threshed against of 20,3. They don’t even dream about the level of the previous year — 26,3 c/hectare. Then 93,8 million t. grain were collected, official forecast for this year decreased from 86 to 75 million t., while experts wait for coincidence of the harvest with the level of internal consumption — 71,5 million t.
It is higher, than in 2010 (63 million t.) but quality of wheat is ultralow. Wheat of the 1st class doesn’t grow in Russia, the share of the 2nd class wheat is no more than 0.1%, the share of the 3rd class — about a quarter. The basis of the crop — wheat of the 4th class which at the Soviet power wasn't considered even food, only fodder.
Passing stocks of grain are estimated in 17,8 million t., but are badly stored. Elevators have got decayed, their owners abuse monopoly position and many farms store grain themselves — often in barns, as at serfdom. 30% of producers of grain have even no barns.
Therefore grain gets spoiled and perishes, sometimes, as control checks show, disappears.
Real stocks are lower than official ones. Poor harvest makes state regulation necessary — up to export restriction: 12.1 million tons are contracted now, but without restrictions export can exceed even 20 million having created deficiency. Deputy Prime Minister Dvorkovich declared uselessness even of grain interventions habitual since 2003.
It is organic for the liberals considering any state regulation Satanism and helps "socially close" to them speculators to make profit of sufferings of society. So, traditional delay of grain interventions does them instrument of support not of the producers, but of the secondhand dealers.
Postponement of reaction to poor harvest dramatically aggravates its consequences. Joining of Russia to the WTO led to a ban of a number of habitual measures of support of agricultural producers, while there’s no time for mastering of difficult methods which are allowed.
Now, unlike 2010, such poor level of the crop is global: the USA suffers the severest drought for 56 years. World prices fly up — import (and Russia buys even wheat of the 3rd class) will be expensive.
Speculators on Warpath
The Russian trade is, seemingly, monopolized not worse than housing and communal services. Prices for buckwheat and millet increased in times because of drought of 2010 and monstrous deficiency of buckwheat, as long as it’s possible to judge, was organized artificially: country warehouses literally burst with buckwheat of previous crops.
Medvedev personally described that crime — but as it’s written in a caption of the Hollywood films, "no animal was hurt”. It became for speculators a guarantee of impunity, some kind of "license for robbery" of people of Russia and this autumn will generate new artificial deficiencies and overestimation of prices.
"Things are happening": from August, 1 to August, 27 wheat flour rose in price by 5,1% (more than for previous seven months), hens — by 3.6%, white loaf — by 2,5%, brown and dark bread — by 2,4%, millet — by 2,0%. Citizens of Perm region say that oat flakes, millet, other grain almost disappeared from network shops.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade raised inflation forecast not without reason. Against growth of tariffs of housing and communal services, prices for gasoline and, obviously, for drugs rise in price for food will painfully strike people and will strengthen their indignation. It is not necessary to forget that February revolution began with the hungry revolt which was consequence of speculation of mediocre officials of the Petersburg city hall — while there was enough food.
Be Careful: Next STOP of ECONOMY, Doors Open into Crisis!
Key sign of frailty of comprador economy of Russia — sharp braking of growth of gross domestic product at the comfortable oil price. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, it will be decreased from 4,3% in 2010 and 2011 to 3,4% in 2012. As in the first half of the year it made 4.4% — in the second it will fall approximately to 2,4%.
Neither drought, nor flight of capital (though more than 100 bln dollars went abroad for 11 months) can explain such fail: tribalism of the offshore aristocracy eats up Russia. To support sociopolitical stability at growth below 5,5% within Putin model is impossible even theoretically.
The reason of demolition of a situation is obvious: monstrous corruption reminding feast of a ruling party during plague of global crisis and total arbitrariness of monopolies providing it with money cracked the ridge of "oil economy".
Exterminating the country it’s naïve to wait that its economy will rise "from knees" — even to get knee and elbow pose, even under a golden rain of petrodollars.
Economy destruction under a burden of mad political system (corruption and monopolism look its quintessence), as well as postponed inevitability appeared surprise.
It’s not timely to enjoy triumph over petty tyrant — the host of the house who has deprived you of the rights to manage one of the apartments.
Putin stability comes to an end — Putin disintegration begins.
It’s an early stage — and theoretically it can be stopped.
For this purpose it is necessary to refuse liberal dogmas destroying the country and blocking development and to pass from strategy of plundering of Russia with legalization of the stolen in the luxurious countries, being represented as essence of a state administration of all quarter of the century of national treachery, to the strategy of development.
This transition is terrible for the power for it means radical restriction of corruption and arbitrariness of monopolies, normalization of social policy, reasonable protectionism and complex modernization of technological infrastructure that, most likely, will be apprehended by ruling party as overthrow of bases of political system and impudent robbery of ruling class.
Reaction of this offshore aristocracy can be such that Milosevic's destiny will seem to Putin ultimate dream.
Present “owners of the Russian land” have no other way than to break this reaction (it’s better in a germ): alternative — death and not obligatory only social.
From technical point of view there’s nothing difficult in it: take textbook from the shelf and read.
From the political point of view it is revolution.
But if the power doesn't carry out ripened reforms, this power will inevitably be swept away — it’s axiom of policy.
Yes, certainly: sharp braking of growth is not a catastrophe. It’s only disturbing call. But the clock is ticking and it’s heard by all political forces.
Liberals: return to the power?
The liberal clan (represented well after Medvedev's presidency in power structures) recovered from Medvedev's refusal to compete to Putin.
New strategy is obvious since winter: coordinated blows of both fists — street and staff. As it serves global business Putin’s friends and security officers are powerless before it as Korzhakov and Soskovets were powerless before Chubais: money of all offshore aristocracy regardless of clan accessory is transferred to the West and is supervised by the same global business. Therefore opposition to its "assault infantry" without the breach with the offshore aristocracy is impossible for Putin.
We already saw and will see again street fight with his participation. The last manifestation of staff fight — open letter of Dvorkovich in connection with routine dispute on the theme what clan will supervise restored part of power industry — network economy. The mere genre of this letter — demonstration of incapacity of Putin’s control system, public slap in the face — it is not less serious, than provocation against security officers by "Pussy Riots". Helplessness of security officers reminds punishment not of the organizers of business for trade of kids’ stuff but of children involved in it.
Putin held down by the offshore aristocracy will stay only till next Navalny would transform in estimation global business from "promising" into "sensible manager".
Twitching at a nonplus, the state turned itself into concourse of the frightening clowns occupied with operations of cover. They forgot about juvenile justice because of a ban, because of "Pussy Riots" they forgot not only about privatization, drought and fires, but also about other political prisoners — Arakcheev, Kvachkov (whom they forgot to bring accusation), Khodorkovsky, Daniel Konstantinov and victims of police provocation on May, 6.
Possibly the bureaucracy expects to keep liberal control over the protest so that when it will capture industrial zone (prestrike condition at Kaluga "Folskvagen" is indicative) and become social and patriotic, it would scatter because of its extraneity to leaders: even Putin will be closer to new Protestants, than Navalny with Chirikova. If he will talk about corruption and send to prison several mayors and vice governors he would return national sympathies for a while.
The liberal opposition, seemingly, hopes for February plot after which it will at once send all potential not consent away. Liberals also went to school, the cult of Pinochet is popular among them not for nothing.
Healthy forces of society should embody synthesis of democratic, patriotic and social values in policy, they should seize wakening energy of society, release it from under liberal control and to direct on achievement of social and patriotic purposes. It is necessary to escape from ideological reservations and to serve all country, not gnawing each other outcasts.
It’s a highway: to the power – for us, to prosperity – for Russia.